40 – The Future of Set-Aside Policies
Expanding, Reforming, or Replacing Quotas in Indigenous Procurement
A Capstone Analysis of 40 Blogs of Evidence — What the OPO Review, TIPS Co-Development, International Comparators, and the Integrity Crisis Reveal About the Next Generation of Indigenous Procurement Policy
This is the fortieth and final blog in Nacia Forge's TIPS Policy Blog Series. Across thirty-nine prior blogs, we examined Indigenous procurement from every angle: constitutional and treaty foundations; PSIB set-aside mechanics; the 5% target and its performance gaps; the IBD integrity crisis; engagement and consultation frameworks; barriers facing women, youth, and remote businesses; the international trade architecture; the defence sector opening; and the emergency procurement exclusion problem. Blog #40 asks the synthesis question: given all of this, what should the future of set-aside policy look like?
The question arrives at a pivotal moment. The OPO's March 2026 Procurement Practice Review described the current system as a 'cascading failure' — inconsistent guidance, absent accountability, and a reporting methodology that overstates economic benefit to Indigenous communities. The TIPS co-development table is building the next-generation policy framework, targeted for finalization winter 2026 and April 1, 2027 implementation. Canada's Auditor General has opened a PSIB investigation with results expected fall 2026. Australia is simultaneously reforming its Indigenous Procurement Policy with rising targets and tightening eligibility.
This blog examines what the evidence says across three possible futures for the set-aside model: expansion, reform, or replacement. It draws on the OPO's findings, the TIPS What We Learned Report, the INAN committee's 2025 recommendations, the IBD integrity crisis, and Australia's reform trajectory. It closes with a statement of what genuine economic reconciliation through procurement requires.
- The System as Built: What the Evidence Now Shows
The Procurement Strategy for Indigenous Business was established in 1996 — thirty years before this blog is published. Its core mechanism has remained essentially unchanged: a set-aside system that reserves federal contracts for businesses meeting a 51% Indigenous ownership and control threshold, verified through the Indigenous Business Directory. The 5% mandatory target, added in 2021, increased the scale of the system without changing its architecture.
Three decades of evidence now make the system's structural limitations visible. The OPO's March 26, 2026 Procurement Practice Review — the most comprehensive independent audit of the PSIB ever conducted — documented what Ombud Alexander Jeglic called a 'cascading failure': departments not checking IBD listings before awarding set-aside contracts; absent standardized eligibility verification; significant compliance documentation gaps; no recourse mechanism for Indigenous businesses when set-asides go to ineligible businesses; and a 5% reporting methodology that counts full contract value even when most work is performed by non-Indigenous subcontractors.
The IBD integrity crisis — exposed by Global News in partnership with First Nations University of Canada researchers — revealed that ISC's verification relied on an honour system. A random sample of 50 IBD-listed businesses found 68 per cent had missing or incomplete verification documents. Of 2,925 active listings as of August 2024, only 215 audits were conducted in 2023-24. INAN tabled its PSIB abuse report on October 23, 2025. ISC apologized to the Algonquin Anishinabeg Nation Tribal Council after an official told the group that a photograph of a rabbit was sufficient proof of Indigeneity.
The TIPS What We Learned Report (December 2025) adds the Indigenous community voice. Approximately 550 participants across more than 50 engagement sessions described a procurement system that is complex, colonial, and inconsistently applied — where the PSIB is recognized as a foundational tool but its inconsistent implementation produces as much frustration as economic benefit. The cumulative finding of the OPO review, the Global News investigation, the INAN report, and the TIPS engagement is convergent: the current architecture is insufficient for the goals it is supposed to achieve.
- Three Futures: Expand, Reform, or Replace?
The documented failures do not point to a single obvious future. Three broad policy trajectories are available to Canadian policymakers — each with precedents, advocates, and evidence.
Future 1 — Expand: Raise the Target, Broaden the Set-Aside. The expansion argument holds that 5% is too low and too inconsistently applied. The NIEDB's 2016 estimate of a $27.7 billion GDP opportunity cost from Indigenous economic exclusion — updated by Statistics Canada's finding that Indigenous Peoples contributed $48.9 billion to GDP in 2020 — suggests the procurement system massively under-leverages the Indigenous economy. Under expansion, the target rises (potentially to 10% as the Indigenous share of Canada's working-age population grows), set-aside rules broaden to more contract types and lower thresholds, and mandatory requirements strengthen across all departments. Australia's trajectory is instructive: its IPP target rose from 2.5% to 3% on July 1, 2025, rising 0.25% annually to 4% by 2030.
Future 2 — Reform: Fix What Exists. The reform argument holds that the set-aside architecture is sound but the implementation is broken. The OPO's three recommendations — a comprehensive Indigenous Procurement Policy, an Indigenous-led recourse mechanism, and accurate 5% reporting — are reform prescriptions, not replacement prescriptions. So is the TIPS table's direction: distinction-based framework, Indigenous-led IBD governance, community business list recognition, enforceable IPPs, and equity-based evaluation criteria. The new comprehensive policy — targeted for finalization winter 2026 and full implementation April 1, 2027 — is the reform vehicle, preserving the set-aside architecture while overhauling verification, reporting, accountability, and governance. ISC has accepted all three OPO recommendations. The permanent Indigenous-led recourse mechanism is targeted for April 2028.
Future 3 — Replace: Move Beyond Set-Asides to Self-Determination. The replacement argument holds that set-asides, however well-implemented, remain a system designed by the federal government for Indigenous businesses — a colonial architecture that directs spending without giving Indigenous communities control over how it is designed or governed. The TIPS table's most ambitious direction — devolving the IBD to Indigenous-led organizations, recognizing modern treaty business lists, building Indigenous-led recourse mechanisms, and embedding Indigenous governance into the policy framework — points toward a model where Indigenous Peoples are co-architects and co-governors, not merely beneficiaries. The First Nations Procurement Authority, launched May 2025 as a proposed IBD successor, illustrates both the aspiration and the gap: federal backing remained unconfirmed as of September 2025.
- The International Comparator: What Australia’s Reform Reveals
Australia's parallel reform trajectory is the most directly relevant international comparator for Canada's set-aside policy choices. Both countries have mandatory Indigenous procurement targets, Indigenous business registries, and documented integrity problems with non-Indigenous businesses circumventing eligibility requirements. Both are now simultaneously raising targets and tightening verification.
Australia's IPP target rose from 2.5% to 3% on July 1, 2025, increasing 0.25% annually to 4% by 2030, at which point the Commonwealth has committed to review the methodology. New eligibility criteria apply from July 1, 2026: businesses not registered with ORIC (the Office of the Registrar of Indigenous Corporations) must undergo new certification processes. Australia's reform of 'Black Cladding' — the equivalent of Canada's 'rent-a-feather' schemes — involves working with regulators to address disingenuous IPP eligibility conduct, directly paralleling Canada's IBD integrity crisis response.
Three lessons for Canadian policy emerge. First, rising targets are politically viable — the argument that procurement spending should reflect the Indigenous population share is broadly accepted. Second, tightening eligibility simultaneously with raising targets is essential: loose verification at higher spending levels produces greater absolute fraud exposure. Third, the move toward Indigenous-operated registry mechanisms (ORIC in Australia, FNPA in Canada) is the direction of travel — but requires sustained federal resourcing. The FNPA's May 2025 launch without confirmed federal backing illustrates the risk of an under-resourced transition.
Canada vs. Australia Indigenous Procurement Policy — Reform Comparison
| Dimension | Canada (PSIB / TIPS) | Australia (IPP) |
| Current target | 5% of total federal contract value (mandatory since 2021-22, all departments by 2024-25) | 3% from July 1, 2025 (rising 0.25%/year to 4% by 2030) |
| Verification mechanism | Indigenous Business Directory (IBD) — federal government-administered; honour system tightened 2022; comprehensive audit underway | ORIC-registered corporations exempt from new eligibility criteria; non-ORIC businesses face new certification process from July 1, 2026 |
| Integrity response | INAN report (Oct 2025); OAG investigation (opened Dec 2024, results fall 2026); IBD audit heightened scrutiny from Oct 2025 | New eligibility criteria Jul 1, 2026; regulatory action against 'Black Cladding'; ORIC-based eligibility pathway |
| Indigenous governance direction | TIPS co-development table calls for IBD devolution to Indigenous-led organization(s); FNPA launched May 2025 — federal backing unconfirmed as of Sept 2025 | ORIC provides Indigenous governance pathway; move toward certification through Indigenous-controlled bodies |
| Recourse mechanism | OPO interim recourse (accepted by ISC); permanent Indigenous-led mechanism targeted April 2028 | Existing Commonwealth complaints mechanism; no dedicated Indigenous-led recourse equivalent |
| Target trajectory | 5% mandatory, underperformance documented (PSPC: 3.4% in 2023-24); subcontract value counting from 2024-25 | Rising to 4% by 2030; methodology review committed at 4% threshold |
- What the TIPS Co-Development Table Has Built
The TIPS co-development table — over 40 federal and Indigenous members, meeting 7 times in 2024-25, co-chaired by the Manitoba Métis Federation and CANDO since 2025 — is the institutional mechanism through which the next generation of Canadian Indigenous procurement policy is being built.
The table's direction: on verification, transition to Indigenous-led bodies that recognize regional and treaty-based registries, with IBD devolution to an Indigenous-led organization. On the procurement framework: distinction-based framework honouring First Nations, Inuit, and Métis priorities; equity-based evaluation criteria; community business list recognition; reformed IPPs with enforceable metrics. On reporting: real-time, disaggregated data reflecting the value of work actually performed by Indigenous businesses — not aggregate contract values. On recourse: a permanent, impartial, Indigenous-led mechanism — recommended by the OPO in March 2026 and accepted by ISC.
The comprehensive Indigenous Procurement Policy — being finalized in winter 2026 with full implementation targeted for April 1, 2027 — is the vehicle for operationalizing this direction. It represents the most significant restructuring of the PSIB since its creation in 1996. The new policy is not a replacement of the set-aside model but a transformation of it: preserving the set-aside architecture while replacing the verification, reporting, governance, and accountability mechanisms that have failed.
- The Road to April 2027: What to Watch and What to Do
The next eighteen months — June 2026 to April 2027 implementation of the new comprehensive Indigenous Procurement Policy — are the most consequential in the history of Canadian Indigenous procurement. The following warrant active tracking and engagement.
Monitor the new Indigenous Procurement Policy development. Targeted for finalization winter 2026, full implementation April 1, 2027. ISC is consulting with First Nations, Inuit, and Métis stakeholders through fall 2026. The TIPS contact (staa-tips@sac-isc.gc.ca) and ISC's Indigenous procurement engagement page are the primary access points. The new policy determines verification requirements, set-aside thresholds, IPP standards, reporting methodology, and governance structure for the foreseeable future.
Track the Auditor General investigation results (expected fall 2026). The OAG opened its PSIB investigation in December 2024 following the Global News investigation. The results will either validate the OPO's findings or extend them — in either case shaping the political urgency and scope of new policy implementation. Be prepared to engage when findings are released.
Engage the FNPA and IBD devolution process. The First Nations Procurement Authority launched May 2025 as a proposed Indigenous-led IBD successor, with federal backing unconfirmed as of September 2025. ISC has confirmed engagement with approximately 550 Indigenous organizations on IBD transfer. Sustained advocacy for federal resourcing of the FNPA is the most direct lever for advancing Indigenous-controlled verification.
Use the OPO interim recourse mechanism and maintain rigorous IBD registration. While the permanent Indigenous-led recourse mechanism is built (targeted April 2028), the OPO is the interim recourse body for PSIB complaints. File complaints when PSIB non-compliance occurs — they build the evidence base for both the OAG investigation and policy design. Meanwhile, since the INAN report in October 2025, IBD auditors now focus on 'strategic direction and operational management' control — not just ownership on paper. Review IBD documentation against this heightened standard.
Conclusion: Forty Blogs, One Direction
Forty blogs. Thirty years of PSIB history. Three decades of documented exclusion, partial inclusion, integrity crisis, and policy reform. The Nacia Forge TIPS Policy Blog Series has documented all of it — from the constitutional foundations of the duty to consult to the emergency contracting gap, from the Nunavut Directive's model to the defence sector's generational opening, from the 47% financing gap facing Indigenous women entrepreneurs to the 7.2% export rate that falls short of every Canadian benchmark.
The evidence from across this series points in one direction: the set-aside model is not wrong, it is unfinished. Set-asides work when they are verified with integrity, reported accurately, governed with Indigenous authority, and backed by recourse mechanisms that actually function. None of these conditions fully exist in the current system. All of them are within reach in the new comprehensive Indigenous Procurement Policy that is being finalized in winter 2026.
The window is open. The TIPS co-development table has done the work. The OPO has validated the findings. The INAN committee has demanded action. The Auditor General is watching. What the next generation of Indigenous procurement policy does with this moment will determine whether federal procurement becomes a genuine instrument of economic reconciliation — or continues to produce the gap between promise and delivery that 550 Indigenous voices described to ISC between 2022 and 2024.
Nacia Forge will continue to track, analyze, and report on these developments as the new comprehensive Indigenous Procurement Policy takes shape. The work continues.
All facts, findings, statistics, legal provisions, and policy positions in this blog are drawn from the following primary and authoritative sources: Office of the Procurement Ombud (OPO), Procurement Practice Review of Contracts Awarded to Indigenous Businesses (March 26, 2026); CBC News, Strategy Meant to Help Indigenous Businesses Get Federal Contracts Is ‘Failing,’ Says Ombud (March 26, 2026); MLT Aikins, The Procurement Ombud’s Review of Indigenous Procurement (March 28, 2026); CCIB, Statement in Response to OPO Procurement Practice Review (Globe Newswire, March 31, 2026 / April 1, 2026); ISC, Transformative Indigenous Procurement Strategy (TIPS): What We Learned Report 2022–2024 (December 19, 2025); Gowling WLG, Procuring an Edge for Indigenous Businesses (December 19, 2025 — INAN report October 23, 2025; IBD heightened scrutiny; control standard); Global News / First Nations University of Canada, 'This Is Fraud': Indigenous Leaders Sound Off on Federal Procurement Program (November 1, 2024); Global News, Auditor General Considers Probing Indigenous Procurement (September 13, 2024); Global News, 'A Picture of a Bunny': ISC Apologizes to Algonquin Tribal Council (September 18, 2024); Global News / committee urges Indigenous procurement fixes (October 2025 — 68% missing documents, 215 audits of 2,925 listings); ISC INAN Appearance, December 9, 2024 (PSPC Minister Duclos — IBD integrity, verification, subcontracting); CBC News, AFN Regional Chief Joanna Bernard on PSIB integrity (2024); Nacia Forge Policy Update Bulletin (psib.naciaforge.com, October 2025 — $1.24B 2023-24 contracts, subcontract counting from 2024-25); ISC, Facts About Federal Indigenous Procurement Policies and Practices (April 10, 2026); ISC, 2026-27 Departmental Plan (March 13, 2026); Canada’s National Observer, Health Canada’s Struggles with Procurement an ‘Old Story’ (September 29, 2025 — FNPA launch, IBD devolution); MinterEllison, Changes to the Commonwealth’s Indigenous Procurement Policy (August 2025 — Australia IPP target 3%, rising to 4% by 2030, new eligibility criteria July 1, 2026, Black Cladding); NIEDB, Reconciliation: Growing Canada’s Economy by $27.7 Billion (2016); Statistics Canada, Indigenous Peoples Economic Account (2022). © 2026 Nacia Forge. All rights reserved.

40 – The Future of Set-Aside Policies

39 – Crisis Procurement

38 – Defense, Aerospace, and Security

37 – Export Readiness

36 – Underrepresented Groups

35 – Engagement Protocols

34 – Metrics Beyond Dollars

33 – Talent Pipelines

32 – Government-to-Government Procurement

